Friday, September 28, 2007

Time to rationalize holdings

Market looks top heavy, might sway a bit and go down before emerging up again(sometime during muhurat trading, i believe).

For all those invested, cut your exposures in:
1. Mid and small caps
2. Sell stocks like IT to the extent of 25-33%.

Stay atleast 30% - 33% cash. All stocks look heavy now, expecting a downward bias. Maybe now, maybe after Infy results. But stay atleast 30% in cash by cutting holdings to reduce your losses and take advantage of opportunities now.

Disclosure: I have cut my exposure in Tide Water Oil to 0%, after it touched a high on 49XX and again came down to 41XX, got time to sell as it was not on circuit yesterday.

Planning to sell 1-2 more midcaps.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

New Ideas: Zicom

Zicom is subdued nowadays, but seems to have completed its downtrend on the charts is consolidation. So can Start ACCUMULATE.

Only concern that I faced was low holding of promoters(19%), rest looks good, sound model and domestic focus. Increased security concerns spell good for this company.

Chart attached:

Tide Water Oil: Unexplained Rise

I have been holding Tide Water Oil for quite some time. Earlier it was sparked by the rumor of mergin with ONGC.

But remained stagnant after Subir Raha's departure

Hit quite a few 10% upper circuits recently, though do not know what fuelled the latest growth. Check Chart here:

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Buy Signals for coming days

Bharat Bijlee tested its 52 week-high in an Intraday move. The company seems to be well poised on 2 fronts:

1. The industry it operates in , is doing well. The IIP is hitting the roof.
2. The company holds plenty of Siemens Shares @ book value of 73 approx.

Not done a detailed fundamental valuation of the company, but looks good even on a casual look.

Strong BUY for Bharat Bijlee
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Buy on Declines:

LnT, SBI, ONGC

LnT - Again good IIP Numbers/Great stock if Nuclear Energy is to be taken as next generation growth engine for India/Great stock if allowed to enter the heavy electrical equipment business monopolized by BHEL

SBI - Good Reward - Risk Ratio. Chances of Rights/FPO, mergers with subsidiaries to boost valuations.

ONGC - Grossly undervalued. This stock will benefit because of lower subsidy burden. Rising ruppee would have capped the losses of oil marketing companies. So ONGC might have to share a lesser burden.

With all the profit it earns, its a gold mine once set free from government policies, Accumulate at declines, esp. if you have a good long germ view.

But ya, all said and done, do save money to invest in the PowerGridCorporation IPO.
Expected Premium around 11-12 Rupees on listing