Recession is ON: Cautious Buys to Begin

Recession has begun, finally.

Welcome to the world of currency volatility, national bankrupties, falling crude oil demand, power shift away from the west, growing middle-east influence, rising china power, asset devaluation, re-birth of the pink slips, golden handshakes, decreasing attritions, increasing rightwing and nationalist sentiments :)

Enough for the podium. Here is the suggestion. Recession if officially recognized in most of the western world, which will slowdown BRIC growth as well. In India specifically, some value has begun to emerge.

No suggestion of buying though. I don't think the world has ever tested the depth of the waters it has entered. Its like the lower sinusoid of seasonal downturn and a cyclical blip in growth coming together aggravating.

However, those who have enough money and patience to accumulate slowly can start buying small amounts of the foll. bluechips:

1. LT: For reasons why, see the first post. Most professionally managed, good order book, frequently outsmarted the NIFTY, can survive the deep recession over 2-3 years, good presence in domestic sector.Value levers in form of demergers once the recession is over are intact

2. TCS: Value buy. Defensive buy. If mkts fall, FII's pull money out, currency depreciates, TCS gains. Excellent management, good presence in maintencnace portfolio which companies cannot vanish overnight, so will keep getting orders, many multi-year projects. Margins may come under pressure though, so also volume growth will slow.

3. RIL: Deep pockets, growth engines in Retail and E&P yet to be unlocked. R&M is a money spinning cow, valuations attractive.