Saturday, May 29, 2010

MKTS EXPENSIVE; HOLD

Continuing on my previous post, markets still look expensive. So no new buy calls. HOLD on all current items held.

BOMBAY PROPERTY MKT for India.
SOVEREIGNS at an international level and
GOLD among commodities

look overvalued.

BOMBAY PROPERTY: Premium over other Tier-2 and Tier-3 towns has swelled, so also has prices increase over previous year. Volumes have obviously plummeted. Do not see the prices go down significantly but upside will be capped.

SOVEREIGNS: have inherited the risks of banks. Coupled with ageing population in the developed world and increasing social security costs. This might lead to downgrades of sovereigns. GREECE And SPAIN already underway.

GOLD: No real VALUE, no way to judge returns. No earnings, no dividends, not of heavy use in day-to-day activities e.g. STELL, COPPER, ALUMINIUM. Current prices driven by fear and greed. Upside if countries return back to gold standard. Otherwise a BEAR-CASE Scenario in short term.

RECMMONEDATION: Hold what you have, hedge across currencies and asset classes, keep whatever cash you have.NO NEW BUYS, unless you understand an industry well and are convinced of the prospects of a company within that industry.

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