Consensus Estimates is not Common-Sense Estimate, is It?

Saw a few reports on Consensus Estimates for Indian Markets by renowned bankers. With base case estimate running at 20% YoY earnings growth to 28% YoY earnings growth for FY11, FY12, FY13 - it just does not make sense.

Any competitive industry - and a company having decent scale with it - will probably grow 15-24% YoY. And with rising interest rates (falling volume growth and NIM's for banks), subsidies in Oil and Gas (losses for OMCs, profit reductions for upstream), stagnating real-estate (demand oustripping supply, rising EMI's, increasing inflation), infrstructure panting (rising inflation).... most sectors are up for negative revision in growth rates.

With all this in the picture, not able to fathom what is the consensus estimate made up of? - Either there is a lack of common sense in the creaters and audience of these reports or I seem to be on a different plane.

My growth estimates will probably be - Bull Case of 20% per annum for FY11-FY13, Base case of 16)% (which is still very optimistic) and a bear case of 12% growth.

Will probably come back and check in the next 12-18 months.
At present, Sensex looks overpriced and ripe for a correction if we do a global P/E of 12 month TTM or a FY12'Consensus' projections - operational risks are taken too much for granted.