Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Continue to be bearish... respect short team bouncebacks, but medium term outlook remains unfavourable
Continued with bearish mode on the market, though more circumspect after the recent fall. Expecting an immediate bounce-back for NIFTY tomorrow given the US bounce-back later today. However, remain bearish on the market from a medium-term perspective.
Unusual how none of the economists are using the 'D' word or the 'S' word...
For people in countries like Greece, Italy, Spain - the real economy is almost entirely in a Depression mode with reduced consumption, excessive and abrupt tax-cuts and reduction in investment leading to sharper contraction. Add countries which might not be (or will not be in future) a part of Eurozone and it could lead to chaotic inflation exercised by currency devaluation (e.g. Countries in Mid-East, South-East Asia)
For now, most of developed world seems to be in a Stagflation mode --- technicalities might be modified maneovured to attempt defy this. But that is what the median of the population is really experiencing.
From a medium to long term perpsective, this might cause basic materials (Metal, Oil, Coal) to correct, but for now... bearish on equities in the short to medium run and bearish on developed market fundamentals, emerging market fundamentals with debts > 90% of GDP and bearish on leveraged balance sheets!
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